There is a pattern that follows Mohammed bin Salman around that is worth noting. MBS is extremely vocal about what he will do, then maneuvers behind closed doors to get what he wants, and when the consequences arrive, he disappears like an ostrich with his head under the sand.
The first public glimpse of this was the Khashoggi murder, where we saw MBS go silent when the CIA published its assessment that he personally approved the hit. We saw him go silent again with the war in Yemen, launching a bombing campaign that killed tens of thousands. And now, on the largest and most consequential stage of his career, he has gone silent again when dealing with the 2026 Iran war.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes across Iran, killing much of the Iranian leadership in a single blow. They struck nuclear facilities, military sites, and government buildings. Iran retaliated indiscriminately against Israel, US bases across the Gulf, and every Arabian Peninsula state. The Strait of Hormuz was shut down. The Gulf became a war zone overnight. And Mohammed bin Salman, the man who calls himself the leader of the region, the visionary who would reshape the Middle East, stood by and watched it happen.
What Happened While His Country Was Under Fire
Saudi Arabia took direct hits. Iranian drones and missiles struck Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and critical oil infrastructure. The Saudi Ministry of Defence boasted about intercepting seven drones, but when two Iranian ballistic missiles targeted Saudi refineries, it was a Greek-operated Patriot battery that shot them down. Hundreds of billions in American weapons purchases, and Greece had to defend the kingdom.
On 2 March, a drone hit the Ras Tanura refinery. Formula One cancelled the Saudi and Bahrain Grand Prix. The real blow came on 19 March when an Iranian drone struck the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded, Yanbu had become Saudi Arabia’s primary oil export hub, handling 3.8 million barrels per day. The strike shut down crude loadings. Tehran sent a clear message: it knew where Saudi Arabia’s lifelines were and could reach all of them.
And MBS issued cabinet statements promising to “take all necessary measures” and warning Iran of “the heaviest consequences.” Words only. It took until 26 March, nearly a full month into the war, for Saudi Arabia to join a joint Gulf condemnation of Iran’s attacks. Saudi oil infrastructure was on fire, missiles were landing on Saudi soil, and the best Mohammed bin Salman could produce in thirty days was a press release.
Playing Both Sides Until Both Sides Noticed
The reason for the silence is straightforward. Mohammed bin Salman played both sides, and it caught up with him at the worst possible moment. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a China-brokered normalization agreement that restored diplomatic relations after nearly a decade of hostility. MBS positioned himself as the man who could keep Tehran calm while maintaining the American security relationship. In late January 2026, weeks before the strikes, he spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian and explicitly promised that Saudi territory and airspace would not be used against Iran. He told Pezeshkian that “Saudi Arabia stands with its brothers in Iran.”
At the same time, he was pushing Trump to destroy Iran’s military capabilities. When Iran retaliated, MBS could not claim to be Iran’s friend. He could not claim to be America’s wartime partner because he had promised Tehran neutrality. He could not mediate because both sides knew he had been deceiving them. Every door was closed because MBS had slammed them shut himself. On 22 March, Riyadh expelled Iran’s military attaché and four embassy staff. The Saudi foreign ministry acknowledged that “what little trust there was before has completely been shattered.” Two years of normalization and trade delegations were destroyed. Worse, those two years gave Tehran the intelligence it needed to know exactly where Saudi Arabia was most vulnerable.
Everyone Else Led. Mohammed bin Salman Watched.
Qatar and Oman pursued diplomatic channels to de-escalate. The UAE and Bahrain built the backbone of a Gulf security posture that Saudi Arabia contributed almost nothing to. Pakistan, a country Saudi Arabia has historically treated as a source of cheap labour, mediated the ceasefire and deployed 13,000 troops and fighter jets to fill the security vacuum MBS had created. The richest country in the Gulf needed Pakistani infantry to defend its own territory.
Mohammed bin Salman built his brand on being the strongest leader in the region. He signed Cristiano Ronaldo. He hosted comedy festivals. He commissioned renderings of a 170-kilometre mirrored city in the desert. None of that stopped a single Iranian drone.
The Cost of Silence
The Gulf now faces a power vacuum created by one man’s miscalculations. The Christian Science Monitor reported from Riyadh that after absorbing roughly 750 Iranian missile and drone attacks, Saudi officials are only now preparing military options. That conversation should have happened years ago, not after four weeks of bombardment exposed the bankruptcy of MBS’s national security strategy.
The man with singular control over the Public Investment Fund, the military, the intelligence services, and foreign policy had no contingency plan, no coalition, and no message for his people when it mattered most. Contradictory promises, diplomatic relationships that handed Tehran critical intelligence, and lobbying for a war he had no plan to fight have left Mohammed bin Salman exposed as what his critics always suspected: a reckless leader whose ambitions far exceed his competence.
